Americas Watch - November 2017
Something shifts in October. Maybe it is the end of the baseball season. Maybe it is the suddenly chilly mornings and that nip in the air. We start taking stock of the year. And all things considered, it has been a good year so far for the U.S. economy and the property markets. Going into the holiday season, consumers’ confidence levels are giving hope to retailers that spending will match the optimism. That certainly means continued good news for the industrial sector, already basking in the glory of yet another year of stellar performance. On the other hand, stagnancy seems to be the retail sector’s cross to bear. The office sector has shaken itself out of its torpor from the first half of the year to post some solid demand numbers for Q3. The apartment sector is likely to end up with decent performance this year, though the downward trajectory in rents and occupancies is unmistakable at this point. Property markets are reflective of the general state of the economy and signal that the cycle, though mature, still has legs.
Europe Watch - November 2017
There was a period during the summer where the sunshine seemed never-ending, and the wind of change was warm, light and lulled us into believing that the perils of European politics had been dealt with. The innocence of summer was short-lived. The colder winds of autumn have brought back themes of populism and division in Europe. In Austria, Sebastian Kurz and his conservative People’s party emerged as winners in the October legislative election. It was, however, the large electoral support for the far-right Freedom party that took up most headlines. The anti-immigration party looks set to emerge as kingmaker in the upcoming coalition talks – a scenario that has been met with some skepticism in Europe given the party’s rather tainted past. In Spain, a dormant Catalonian crisis has been reignited following the region’s recent push for independence. While the two events above will have little impact on our economic and property outlook, they do reveal that we were too quick to declare populism dead. The theme of this month’s Europe Watch is more uplifting as we explore a sector which continues to perform well despite political uncertainty, namely the hotel sector.
Asia Pacific Watch - November 2017
As a member of the rather antiquated ‘BRICS’ group, India, along with Brazil, Russia and China has ‘emerged’ rapidly, and its national economy is now ranked the sixth largest in the world. GDP for 2017 is forecast to grow by 7.5% whilst the forecast for CPI is to hit a 17 year low of 3.3%. Real estate investment so far in 2017 has been positive following on from a strong year in 2016, with the office sector once again being the stand out performer. Changes to government policies in 2016 with regards to restrictions on overseas realty investment, will most likely create a more stable and favorable environment for foreign investors in the coming years. Previous concerns included limited ownership, arduous planning permission processes and large land size requirements for projects. These issues have been addressed in the hope of boosting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and the larger metropolitan areas such as Mumbai and Delhi NCR (National Capital Region) in particular stand to benefit.
Combined Watch Link